Excess Certainty Adjusted Probability Estimate

Implements the Excess Certainty Adjusted Probability adjustment procedure as described in the paper "Irrational Exuberance: Correcting Bias in Probability Estimates" by Gareth James, Peter Radchenko, and Bradley Rava (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2020; ). The package includes a function that preforms the ECAP adjustment and a function that estimates the parameters needed for implementing ECAP. For testing and reproducibility, the ESPN and FiveThirtyEight data used in the paper are also included.


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install.packages("ecap")

0.1.2 by Bradley Rava, 4 months ago


< http://faculty.marshall.usc.edu/gareth-james/Research/Probs.pdf>


Browse source code at https://github.com/cran/ecap


Authors: Bradley Rava , Peter Radchenko , and Gareth M. James


Documentation:   PDF Manual  


GPL-3 license


Depends on splines, quadprog, ggplot2

Suggests knitr, rmarkdown, testthat


See at CRAN