Reality Check and Predictive Ability Tests for Forecast
Evaluation
Implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tests for
evaluating the accuracy of forecasting models against a benchmark.
The package is grounded in the reality check framework of White
(2000) , extended by Hansen (2005)
for Superior Predictive Ability
(SPA), Giacomini & White (2006)
for Conditional Predictive Ability (CPA), and Corradi & Swanson
(2006) for predictive density
evaluation via the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC) and
ZP Quantile Loss test, the Continuous Ranked Probability
Score (CRPS) (Gneiting & Raftery, 2007)
, coverage tests (Kupiec, 1995)
, HAC covariance estimation (Newey &
West, 1987) , and Moving Block Bootstrap
resampling (Kunsch, 1989) .