Evaluating probabilistic forecasts via proper scoring rules. scoring implements the beta, power, and pseudospherical families of proper scoring rules, along with ordered versions of the latter two families. Included among these families are popular rules like the Brier (quadratic) score, logarithmic score, and spherical score. For two-alternative forecasts, also includes functionality for plotting scores that one would obtain under specific scoring rules.
The scoring package applies scoring rules to probabilistic forecasts and also performs weighted Brier decompositions, with a novel implementation of resampling methods. Portions of the weighted Brier decomposition code are based on code that was included in: Merkle, E. C. & Hartman, R. (2018). Weighted Brier score decompositions for topically heterogeneous forecasting tournaments. Manuscript submitted.