Inference, Goodness-of-Fit and Forecast for Univariate Gaussian Hidden Markov Models

Inference, goodness-of-fit test, and prediction densities and intervals for univariate Gaussian Hidden Markov Models (HMM). The goodness-of-fit is based on a Cramer-von Mises statistic and uses parametric bootstrap to estimate the p-value. The description of the methodology is taken from Chapter 10.2 of Remillard (2013) .